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Corona Virus Chronicle (XVI) - The End for Cash? Yet another reason to buy tech......

May 26, 2020
4 min

Corona Virus Chronicle (XVI) - The End for Cash? Yet another reason to buy tech......

'Paying for goods electronically makes consumer life easier and if it stops transmitting bugs, then all the better.' The End of “the Folding Stuff”– Yet Another Reason To Buy Tech? Notes and coin are a physical representation money and “cash” is a portable means of conferring value from one person to another. Today, cash is comprised of paper or plastic notes and base metal coins. Cash changes over time in terms of physical design, appearance and even denomination. It is used

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Corona Virus Chronicle (XV) - Inflation - a real concern

May 15, 2020
7 min

Corona Virus Chronicle (XV) - Inflation - a real concern

'Think of this as the choice that a mid life crisis couple will make between buying a new Harley or maintaining a fully stocked larder. In reality there is no choice.' The rate of inflation is the change in prices for goods and services over time. Measures of inflation and prices include consumer price inflation, producer price inflation and the House Price Index.” Source: Office for National Statistics (“CPIH”- Consumer Prices Including Housing costs) According to the offici

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Corona Virus Chronicle (XIV) - No FT, No comment

Apr 28, 2020
6 min

Corona Virus Chronicle (XIV) - No FT, No comment

'the point brought out in the FT is that negative pricing already exists and whilst Oil was a shock and surprise, as we can see with the current over-abundant supply of money, it is not the first “thing” to turn negative.' The common link between money, oil, pigs and strawberries The Financial Times is one of the longest serving and most august of daily publications. It is, mostly, dedicated to reporting on investment markets across the world, but with some coverage on major

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Copy of Corona Virus Chronicle (XIII) - The Dividend Debacle II

Apr 2, 2020
3 min

Copy of Corona Virus Chronicle (XIII) - The Dividend Debacle II

'despite years of balance sheet building, greater regulatory oversight and the fact that cancelling dividends actually retains balance sheet liquidity, bank shares are tumbling.' Financial Market Reaction - Dividends. again. We wrote about bank dividends in VC XII and suggested that despite the technical difficulties of cancelling dividends after the XD date, the risks to banks are now such that: “The effects of the Virus are, potentially, long term periods of loan delinquenc

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Corona Virus Chronicle (XII) - The Dividend Debacle

Mar 31, 2020
6 min

Corona Virus Chronicle (XII) - The Dividend Debacle

Looking across the quoted investment universe, it is difficult to pick a stock or sector that should continue paying a dividend at this time and we should expect to see dividend income fall at quite a rapid rate. Financial Market Reaction - Dividends A lot of recent commentary over dividends in the press and financial news channels. The shut down of business has led to companies looking at ways in which they can conserve cash. As this is being written Barclays is being pushed

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Corona Virus Chronicle (XI) - 50p Pounds & Fallen Angels

Mar 28, 2020
8 min

Corona Virus Chronicle (XI) - 50p Pounds & Fallen Angels

For investors, the strategy is to avoid those companies that exhibit traits of becoming fallen angels and own those which have all the qualities of the phoenix. FALLEN ANGELS (source: Bloomberg) In the Divine Comedy (1308–1320) by Dante, Fallen Angels guard the City of Dis surrounding the lower circles of hell. Dante’s Fallen Angels mark a transition point; in previous circles, the sinners are condemned for sins they just could not resist, later on, the circles of hell are f

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Health Wealth - Looking after yourself

Mar 22, 2020
5 min

Health Wealth - Looking after yourself

The World is now heading to a recessionary phase. Until the pandemic is reduced, or eliminated, then financial markets will be held in waves of paralysis, followed by dramatic lurches, both higher (yes, higher), but mostly lower. How seriously do you take the warnings on corona virus? If Governments around the World advise Citizens to isolate and to protect, not only themselves, but their loved ones, their fellow citizens and the fabric of their community, then I am worried.

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Corona Virus Chronicle (X) - Stim shots definately help

Mar 20, 2020
5 min

Corona Virus Chronicle (X) - Stim shots definately help

'we are still, at this stage erring on the side of caution. In our opinion, the possibility of another large loss is still on the cards.' Markets taking a positive tone today as the Central Bank Stim Shots start to have an effect. The big question is will this be enough to, at least, draw a line under the volatility of the last few weeks? We feel that the Stim Shots definitely help. However, as we have seen this week, the law of unintended consequences is now coming into pla

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Corona Virus Chronicle (IX) - This could be a very long and painful recession.

Mar 18, 2020
3 min

Corona Virus Chronicle (IX) - This could be a very long and painful recession.

The coronavirus pandemic has the potential to cause ‘one of the biggest economic shocks ever experienced, eclipsing the shocks of 1929 and even 9/11’. The coronavirus pandemic has the potential to cause ‘one of the biggest economic shocks ever experienced, eclipsing the shocks of 1929 and even 9/11’. That is the view of Gabriel Mathy, an economist at American University in Washington, DC, and a specialist in macroeconomics and the Great Depression. In an essay published on Mo

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Corona Virus Chronicles (VII) - Whiplash

Mar 17, 2020
5 min

Corona Virus Chronicles (VII) - Whiplash

It is difficult to build a case for being in the markets at this time when you are a conservative investor. The chart of the ten year view of Volatility, as measured by The Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) reached these peak levels; on 20th November 2008 to be precise. However, it also had been elevated throughout October, peaking in that month at 80 on the 27th October. What does this tell us? If nothing else, that volatility can remain elevated for quite a long peri

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Corona Virus Chronicles (VIII) - Financial Market Reaction

Mar 16, 2020
4 min

Corona Virus Chronicles (VIII) - Financial Market Reaction

To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.... and to a man who lived through the credit crisis. Every other financial disturbance looks like 2008 We recently opined on the depths of the market in VC7, “Just how far can markets go?” John Authers, who penned the above quote, without putting any numbers on market levels feels that, despite Government measures to assist the economy and their citizens, that this current crisis will follow the Lehamns crisis, or “GFC” o

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Corona Virus Chronicle (VI) - Fast moving with a downward trajectory

Mar 16, 2020
5 min

Corona Virus Chronicle (VI) - Fast moving with a downward trajectory

We are very uncertain about the future in every respect. We feel that there will be further negative market reactions and at this time we find it is difficult to envisage that there will be any good corporate news for quite some time. The US Federal Reserve, yesterday evening (UK time) cut its Funding Rate by 1%, or 100 basis points. That effectively marks the zero bound level of interest rates in the US. We spoke of stresses in the US Dollar based banking system last week an

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Corona Virus Chronicles (V) - Ostrich Syndrome

Mar 13, 2020
4 min

Corona Virus Chronicles (V) - Ostrich Syndrome

Clients rely on Advisers to provide them with the means to invest into financial markets and in this age of low interest rates there has never been a greater need for this relationship. Financial Market Reaction “It is difficult to think how much worse the reaction in the financial markets could now get. But it will get worse” CV Chronicles (iv) 12thMarch…..Equity Markets down 10% and more ….. The US Federal Reserve (US equivalent to the Bank of England), yesterday felt that

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Corona Virus Chronicles (IV) - The expanding the sea of red

Mar 12, 2020
4 min

Corona Virus Chronicles (IV) - The expanding the sea of red

It is difficult to think how much worse the reaction in the financial markets could now get. But it will get worse. Financial Market Reaction It is difficult to think how much worse the reaction in the financial markets could now get. But it will get worse. Markets fell yesterday, despite a realistic and pragmatic approach in the UK. A concerted response from the Bank of England, the UK Treasury and the Chancellor. The FTSE enjoyed a brief respite, but then sunk, along wi

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Corona Virus Chronicles (III) - Financial Market Reaction

Mar 10, 2020
5 min

Corona Virus Chronicles (III) - Financial Market Reaction

We have been contacting all of our clients to discuss the market. We are advising clients to undertake a more cautious stance on their investment portfolios and have been helping them to temporarily move into cash by selling some or all of their investments. Financial Market Reaction Oil…. Yesterday (9th March) it transpired that, over the weekend, Saudi Arabia acrimoniously cut ties with Russia and decided to increase oil supply. Oil fell more than 30%. Stock markets respond

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Corona Virus Chronicles (II) - Financial Market Reaction

Mar 9, 2020
3 min

Corona Virus Chronicles (II) - Financial Market Reaction

This is nothing short of chaos and the points we raised in the note of Friday are unfortunately being played out in fast real time before our eyes. Market Open We advised of the potential for increasing uncertainty as the financial market reaction to the Virus increases. Unfortunately, developments over the weekend have served to reinforce the viewpoint and as this is being written, just before the opening of the European trading day, it looks like there will be another move

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Corona Virus Chronicles (I) - Financial Market Reaction

Mar 6, 2020
5 min

Corona Virus Chronicles (I) - Financial Market Reaction

The primary concern has to be the ability of markets to continue functioning in a worse case scenario. The Current Situation The last few weeks of news-flow have been dominated by the spread of the Virus. Investment services now have dedicated news channels to chart the news flow. Expert opinion has been decidedly coming out in the position of “it’s going to get worse before it gets better”. How the virus story pans out is very difficult to assess. It is on the verge of being

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Choosing the Right Investment Manager

Jul 23, 2018
1 min

Choosing the Right Investment Manager

Choosing the right investment manager...

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The Final Salary Pension

Jul 13, 2018
2 min

The Final Salary Pension

Low gilt yield are favourable right now.

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Rise of the Robo Advisor

Jul 5, 2018
2 min

Rise of the Robo Advisor

Robo-advisors could be a great solution for first time investors or young professionals...

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